Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
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Method

How the Dixon-Coles and xG model turns match statistics into probabilities, fair odds and expected value, and what it cannot do.

New · Scouting Players Research

Find the next Igor Thiago before the market does.

Brentford sold Ivan Toney, signed Yoane Wissa, then Igor Thiago - each time a player the numbers liked more than the price did. Moneyball Scout does that search for every player in Europe’s top five leagues, with the same models that price our matches.

  • Points, not opinions. Win-Rate Impact replays a club’s whole league season through Dixon-Coles with and without the signing: how many points he adds.
  • A price with an edge. Moneyball Value, the fair maximum fee and the expected value of the deal - the way fair odds and EV read on the match board.
  • Fit before the fee. Tactical Fit against the club’s style, Chemistry with every player of the squad, squad depth and a suitability map.
  • The whole file. Eleven positions and their player types, radar per 90, projections by age, Replacement Finder, physical testing, scout reports, shortlist and CSV.
Open Scouting Players Research Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
A player profile: ratings, value, positions, radar and Win-Rate Impact
Player profile and Win-Rate Impact
The search: every player with his score, the points he adds, value, position and player type
2,000+ players, ranked by points added
Radar per 90 minutes against the average of the players scouted
Per 90 against the players scouted
Suitability map: players plotted by chemistry and playing-style fit for a club
Suitability map for a club
Transfer simulator: cost-benefit, playing style and chemistry around the overall score
Transfer Simulator
Tactical Fit against the club's style, and predicted chemistry with every player of the squad
Tactical Fit and Chemistry
The testing wheel: every physical and cognitive test named round the player's average score

Physical and cognitive testing

Your club’s own testing, scored against the typical range for professional footballers, with side-to-side differences flagged as an injury risk and every session kept for the trend.

Athleticism10 m Sprint30 m SprintTop SpeedYo-Yo Intermittent Recovery
Agility5-0-5 Left Turn5-0-5 Right Turn5-10-5 ShuttleTurn Balance
Power and strengthCountermovement JumpBroad JumpReactive Strength IndexNordic TestISO ProneAdductor Squeeze
CognitiveReaction TimeDecision-MakingFocus
Ball skillsBall ControlWeaker Foot
For clubs · Club Mode

Choose your club. See who to buy for it.

Club Mode reads the club from its own data - how young the squad is, what it can spend, how it plays, where it is weakest - and ranks every player in Europe’s top five leagues for it. Not one list for everyone: a shopping list for yours.

  • Sporting directors
  • Heads of recruitment
  • Scouts and analysts
  • Player agents
Club Mode: Inter replacing Federico Dimarco - the club read from its data, and the players who play like him
Club Mode: who to buy for your club
  • Bought the way the club buys. Wing-backs for a side that plays with them, centre-backs strong in the air for a set-piece team, midfielders for a club that builds through them - every position measured against its weakest starter.
  • The right replacement. Dimarco sold? Pick him and get the players who play like him, on his flank, within the budget: De Cuyper, Mittelstädt, Gutiérrez.
  • Wonderkids for a youth policy. Leverkusen, Brentford, Dortmund, Como: players of 23 and under, or 21 and under for an academy, ranked for the club.
  • Star signings. For the clubs that buy big names: Europe’s most valuable players with no budget cap - and a smaller club is never shown a big club’s regulars it could not buy.
  • Beware the one-season wonder. A breakout season, a drop after a great one, or a star with no earlier top-five season to check - flagged beside every name before the fee is paid.
  • Moneyball Scout, from $39 a month. Club Mode, the Transfer Simulator, Replacement Finder and a scout’s file for 2,000+ players. Club licences on request. Try Club Mode See the plans
Match Board
Moneyball Premium

Every match. Every line. Priced by the model.

Scores sites tell you what happened. Moneyball Odds tells you what the data says about the probability and the price: the model’s probability, the bookmaker’s probability with its margin removed, the fair odds and the expected value of every line.

Transparent probabilities, not promises. No model predicts football reliably, and Moneyball Odds never claims you will win.

Example · how a match reads Home side vs Away side
Model probability
62.4%
Market, margin removed
53.8%
Fair odds
1.60
Bookmaker odds
1.86
Expected value
+16.1%

Free

$0

No card needed

  • Every bookmaker price on the board: handicap, over/under, 1X2
  • Model picks and full analysis for the first 3 matches of every schedule
  • Live Match Centre: lineups, events, commentary, pressure and xG
  • Stats Centre: team and player tables, Statistical Best XI
  • Team Characteristics, head to head, statistics comparison
  • Football news, comments, user predictions and email alerts
Full access

Moneyball Pro

$14.99 / month

About €13.30 or £11.30 a month · launch price

  • Every model pick on every schedule, nothing blurred
  • Dixon-Coles · xG fusion probabilities: win, draw, loss, both teams to score, total goals
  • Fair odds and expected value on every Asian handicap, over/under and 1X2 line
  • Two-model cross-check: Dixon-Coles vs Bradley-Terry vs the market with its margin removed
  • Final-score heat map and total-goals probabilities
  • Match Forecast for every match
  • Parlay Builder with simulated return and chance of profit

For scouts and analysts

Moneyball Scout

$39 / month

About €35 or £29.50 a month

  • Everything in Moneyball Pro
  • Scouting Players Research: every player in Europe’s top five leagues, rated against his position
  • Win-Rate Impact: the points a signing adds to a club’s season, through Dixon-Coles and Bradley-Terry
  • Moneyball Value, fair maximum fee and expected value of a transfer
  • Tactical Fit, Chemistry, squad depth and the suitability map
  • Replacement Finder, projections by age, physical testing and scout reports
  • Shortlist, CSV export and printable scout reports

Club licence

On request

For clubs, academies, agencies and media

  • Moneyball Scout for the whole recruitment department
  • Your own club as the proposed team, set up with you
  • Briefings on a shortlist, and more leagues as they are added
Contact us

Plans cannot be bought in the app. If you already have one, sign in and it is ready to use.

Prices in US dollars; euro and pound amounts are a guide. Payments are processed securely by PayPal: pay with a debit or credit card or your PayPal balance (without a PayPal account, PayPal sets up a free one with your card at checkout). You are charged in US dollars, and a subscription renews each month or year until you cancel it in PayPal.

Football News

Stats Centre

Top Team Statistics

View:

Loading statistics…

Top Player Statistics

Statistical Best XI

Only the best performing player for each position is displayed. Ratings are Sportmonks match ratings.

Match Centre

Head To Head What these two have done to each other, venue taken out
Two-Model Cross-Check Dixon-Coles vs Bradley-Terry vs market
Statistics Comparison per match, season average
Scoreline & Total Goals

Final-score heat map

Total-goals probability

Value Board EV = expected value per 1 unit of stake. Gold row = best selection.
Team Characteristics
User Predictions
Comments
Parlay Builder Legs highlighted in gold are the most efficient under the model
Points a signing addsDixon-Coles season, 35% market blend, Bradley-Terry check
Fair fee and expected valueMoneyball Value, cost per point, return on the deal
Fit and chemistryStyle, squad, depth and the suitability map
2,000+ players, 11 positionsThis season and last, rated against their own position
Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Players

Engine Validation — a real 9-leg parlay slip
A second real 9-leg coupon, graded by the model Every leg re-settled from the score, with the model’s probability, expected value and verdict.
Method