Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Chelsea welcome Bournemouth AFC to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Chelsea have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bournemouth AFC have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Chelsea are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Bournemouth AFC at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Chelsea -0.5 at 1.80, Bournemouth AFC at 2.11. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Bournemouth AFC: form and key numbers
In style Bournemouth AFC play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match | Bournemouth AFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.71 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.4 |
| 50.3 | Pressure share % | 52.3 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 8.6 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Chelsea have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Chelsea 5, Bournemouth AFC 4 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth AFC (December 30th 2025).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Chelsea won 1, drew 3 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | Chelsea | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth AFC |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Bournemouth AFC | 0 – 0 | Chelsea |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Chelsea | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth AFC |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Bournemouth AFC | 0 – 1 | Chelsea |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Maxence Lacroix CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
Bournemouth AFC
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Crosser (top 6% of his position)
- Marcus Tavernier LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 73
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and key passes. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.50 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 89% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 84% |
| Goals | 0.75 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances missed | 0.25 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Dominant in the air.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC prediction
Bournemouth AFC should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.78 for Chelsea and 1.58 for Bournemouth AFC - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 66%. Chelsea have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth AFC
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC betting tips
- Tip 1: Chelsea win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC?
Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC?
Chelsea are the favourites: Chelsea 50%, draw 24%, Bournemouth AFC 26%. Our prediction is Chelsea 2-1 Bournemouth AFC.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.