Czechia vs Croatia Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Sunday 27 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-10
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Czechia welcome Croatia in UEFA Nations League A action on Sunday 27 September 2026.
Czechia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Croatia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Czechia 31%, the draw 28%, Croatia 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Czechia +0.25 at 1.85, Croatia at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.74, under 1.93, which gives over 53%.
Czechia vs Croatia: season averages side by side
| Czechia | Per match | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 2.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.57 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 1.06 |
| 1.84 | Goals | 2.35 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 15.4 | Tackles | 13.6 |
| 16.4 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 0.4 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 14 and 36 measured matches.
Czechia vs Croatia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Czechia and 1.23 for Croatia - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Czechia 1-1 Croatia
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Czechia vs Croatia betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Czechia vs Croatia: questions and answers
When is Czechia vs Croatia?
Czechia vs Croatia is on Sunday 27 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Czechia vs Croatia?
It is close: Czechia 31%, draw 28%, Croatia 41%. Our prediction is Czechia 1-1 Croatia.
How many goals will there be in Czechia vs Croatia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.