Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-10
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Poland welcome Bosnia and Herzegovina in UEFA Nations League B action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
Poland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Bosnia and Herzegovina have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Poland are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 25% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Poland -0.75 at 1.75, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.85, under 1.81, which gives over 49%.
Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: season averages side by side
| Poland | Per match | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 1.88 | Goals | 1.46 |
| 15.5 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 11.0 | Tackles | 15.3 |
| 17.5 | Fouls | 16.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 14 measured matches.
Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Poland and 1.23 for Bosnia and Herzegovina - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Poland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Poland 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina betting tips
- Tip 1: Poland to win 56% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: questions and answers
When is Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Poland are the favourites: Poland 56%, draw 25%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 19%. Our prediction is Poland 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina.
How many goals will there be in Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.