San Marino vs Finland Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League C · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-10
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
San Marino welcome Finland in UEFA Nations League C action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
San Marino have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Finland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Finland are clear favourites at 82%, with the draw at 13% and San Marino at 5%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is San Marino +2.25 at 1.96, Finland at 1.70. The main goals line is 3: over 1.76, under 1.89, which gives over 52%.
San Marino vs Finland: season averages side by side
| San Marino | Per match | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| 4.06 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 0.38 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 24 measured matches.
San Marino vs Finland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for San Marino and 1.23 for Finland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Finland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: San Marino 1-2 Finland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
San Marino vs Finland betting tips
- Tip 1: Finland to win 82% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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San Marino vs Finland: questions and answers
When is San Marino vs Finland?
San Marino vs Finland is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League C.
Who will win San Marino vs Finland?
Finland are the favourites: San Marino 5%, draw 13%, Finland 82%. Our prediction is San Marino 1-2 Finland.
How many goals will there be in San Marino vs Finland?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.