Slovenia vs Scotland Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-10
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Slovenia welcome Scotland in UEFA Nations League B action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
Slovenia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Scotland have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Slovenia 37%, the draw 30%, Scotland 33%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Slovenia 0 at 1.75, Scotland at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.93, under 1.74, which gives over 47%.
Slovenia vs Scotland: season averages side by side
| Slovenia | Per match | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 0.69 | Goals | 1.46 |
| 10.5 | Shots | 12.9 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 30 measured matches.
Slovenia vs Scotland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Slovenia and 1.23 for Scotland - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Slovenia 1-1 Scotland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Slovenia vs Scotland betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Slovenia vs Scotland: questions and answers
When is Slovenia vs Scotland?
Slovenia vs Scotland is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Slovenia vs Scotland?
It is close: Slovenia 37%, draw 30%, Scotland 33%. Our prediction is Slovenia 1-1 Scotland.
How many goals will there be in Slovenia vs Scotland?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.