Sweden vs Romania Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-10
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Sweden welcome Romania in UEFA Nations League B action on Saturday 26 September 2026.
Sweden have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Romania have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Sweden are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 22% and Romania at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sweden -1 at 1.72, Romania at 1.96. The main goals line is 3: over 1.94, under 1.72, which gives over 47%.
Sweden vs Romania: season averages side by side
| Sweden | Per match | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 |
| 1.89 | xG conceded | 1.10 |
| 1.88 | Goals | 1.38 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 11.3 | Tackles | 12.0 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 16 and 8 measured matches.
Sweden vs Romania prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Sweden and 1.23 for Romania - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Sweden have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sweden 1-0 Romania
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sweden vs Romania betting tips
- Tip 1: Sweden to win 62% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Sweden vs Romania: questions and answers
When is Sweden vs Romania?
Sweden vs Romania is on Saturday 26 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Sweden vs Romania?
Sweden are the favourites: Sweden 62%, draw 22%, Romania 16%. Our prediction is Sweden 1-0 Romania.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Romania?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.