Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Brentford welcome Liverpool to Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Brentford have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Liverpool have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Brentford 34%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Brentford 0 at 2.12, Liverpool at 1.79. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Brentford: form and key numbers
In style Brentford are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.2).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Brentford vs Liverpool: season averages side by side
| Brentford | Per match | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 1.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 53.1 | Pressure share % | 63.6 |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 16.4 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Brentford
- Caoimhín Kelleher GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 24% of his position)
- Vitaly Janelt DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
Liverpool
- Jérémy Jacquet FB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Virgil van Dijk CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, 27 · Liverpool · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64
Alexander Isak, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Liverpool in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.73 / 90 | 91% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 89% |
| Goals | 0.87 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.25 / 90 | 75% |
| Shots on target | 47% | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher.
- What Alexander Isak is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexander Isak's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brentford vs Liverpool prediction
Liverpool should have more of the ball, with Brentford likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brentford are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Liverpool go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.64 for Brentford and 1.21 for Liverpool - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Brentford 1-1 Liverpool
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Brentford vs Liverpool betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Brentford vs Liverpool: questions and answers
When is Brentford vs Liverpool?
Brentford vs Liverpool is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Brentford vs Liverpool played?
At Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Brentford's home ground.
Who will win Brentford vs Liverpool?
It is close: Brentford 34%, draw 26%, Liverpool 40%. Our prediction is Brentford 1-1 Liverpool.
Who is the player to watch in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Alexander Isak of Liverpool: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.