Everton vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Everton welcome Chelsea to Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Everton have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Chelsea have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Everton 33%, the draw 27%, Chelsea 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Everton +0.25 at 1.85, Chelsea at 2.05. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Everton: form and key numbers
In style Everton are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Everton vs Chelsea: season averages side by side
| Everton | Per match | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 1.71 |
| 1.20 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 48.8 | Pressure share % | 50.3 |
| 18.0 | Tackles | 15.6 |
| 7.8 | Fouls | 8.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Everton
- James Tarkowski CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Duel winner, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Jordan Pickford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Box defender, Long passer (top 28% of his position)
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Maxence Lacroix CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 73
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and key passes. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.50 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 1.75 / 90 | 89% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.50 / 90 | 84% |
| Goals | 0.75 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances missed | 0.25 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Dominant in the air.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Everton vs Chelsea prediction
Chelsea should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.83 for Everton and 1.24 for Chelsea - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Chelsea
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Everton vs Chelsea betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.07 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Premier League previews
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- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
Everton vs Chelsea: questions and answers
When is Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton vs Chelsea is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Everton vs Chelsea played?
At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's home ground.
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
It is close: Everton 33%, draw 27%, Chelsea 40%. Our prediction is Everton 1-1 Chelsea.
Who is the player to watch in Everton vs Chelsea?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Everton vs Chelsea?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.