Leeds United vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Leeds United welcome Manchester United to Elland Road in Leeds in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Leeds United have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Manchester United have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Leeds United 33%, the draw 27%, Manchester United 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Leeds United +0.25 at 1.86, Manchester United at 2.04. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.84, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 22.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Leeds United vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Leeds United | Per match | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.39 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 41.0 | Pressure share % | 73.4 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 13% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70
Marcus Rashford, 28, plays as a winger for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and dispossessed. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.31 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 86% |
| Fouls won | 2.03 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.03 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
- What Marcus Rashford is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Rashford's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Leeds United vs Manchester United prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball, with Leeds United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Leeds United are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.50 for Leeds United and 1.25 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Leeds United vs Manchester United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Leeds United vs Manchester United in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Leeds United vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Leeds United vs Manchester United is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Leeds United vs Manchester United played?
At Elland Road, Leeds, Leeds United's home ground.
Who will win Leeds United vs Manchester United?
It is close: Leeds United 33%, draw 27%, Manchester United 40%. Our prediction is Leeds United 1-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Marcus Rashford of Manchester United: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.