Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Liverpool welcome Manchester City to Anfield in Liverpool in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Liverpool have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Manchester City have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Liverpool 33%, the draw 26%, Manchester City 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Liverpool 0 at 2.17, Manchester City at 1.75. The main goals line is 3: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.2).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.00 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 63.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.04.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: season averages side by side
| Liverpool | Per match | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.00 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 2.60 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 63.6 | Pressure share % | 65.4 |
| 16.4 | Tackles | 12.2 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Liverpool have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Liverpool 10, Manchester City 6 - 2.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City (February 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Liverpool won 4, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Liverpool | 1 – 2 | Manchester City |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Manchester City | 3 – 0 | Liverpool |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Manchester City | 0 – 2 | Liverpool |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Liverpool | 2 – 0 | Manchester City |
| 10 Apr 2018 | Manchester City | 1 – 2 | Liverpool |
| 4 Apr 2018 | Liverpool | 3 – 0 | Manchester City |
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Jérémy Jacquet FB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Virgil van Dijk CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Manchester City
- Elliot Anderson DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 72 · Duel winner, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Josko Gvardiol LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki, 23 · Manchester City · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 77
Rayan Cherki, 23, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 77
- LW · Winger Competent, 67
- RW · Winger Competent, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.53 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.48 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.88 / 90 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.34 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Rayan Cherki is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Rayan Cherki's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball; Liverpool go long and direct; Manchester City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.44 for Liverpool and 1.49 for Manchester City - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Liverpool vs Manchester City betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Liverpool vs Manchester City in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Saturday 10 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Brentford Saturday 10 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC Saturday 10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
Liverpool vs Manchester City: questions and answers
When is Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Liverpool vs Manchester City is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Liverpool vs Manchester City played?
At Anfield, Liverpool, Liverpool's home ground.
Who will win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
It is close: Liverpool 33%, draw 26%, Manchester City 41%. Our prediction is Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City.
Who is the player to watch in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.