Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Newcastle United welcome Aston Villa to St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Newcastle United have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Aston Villa have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Newcastle United are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Aston Villa at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Newcastle United -0.25 at 1.85, Aston Villa at 2.05. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.81, under 2.07, which gives over 53%.
Newcastle United: form and key numbers
In style Newcastle United are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 49.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 2.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: season averages side by side
| Newcastle United | Per match | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 9.6 |
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 2.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 41.3 | Pressure share % | 32.4 |
| 13.8 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Newcastle United
- Amar Dedic RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 2% of his position)
- Lewis Hall LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 9% of his position)
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Ross Barkley CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sven Botman
Sven Botman, 26 · Newcastle United · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64
Sven Botman, 26, plays as a centre-back for Newcastle United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in clearances and blocked shots. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 64
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.20 / 90 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 1.60 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.40 / 90 | 90% |
| Fouls committed | 0.40 / 90 | 87% |
| Duels won | 5.20 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Blocks shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Sven Botman is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sven Botman's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction
Newcastle United should have more of the ball; Newcastle United are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.78 for Newcastle United and 1.20 for Aston Villa - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. Newcastle United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa betting tips
- Tip 1: Newcastle United win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.98 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Newcastle United vs Aston Villa in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
When is Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Newcastle United vs Aston Villa played?
At St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle United's home ground.
Who will win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle United are the favourites: Newcastle United 45%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 29%. Our prediction is Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa.
Who is the player to watch in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Sven Botman of Newcastle United: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.