Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to The City Ground in Nottingham in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Nottingham Forest have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Arsenal have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 25% and Nottingham Forest at 18%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Nottingham Forest +1 at 1.79, Arsenal at 2.12. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.96, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 16.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| Nottingham Forest | Per match | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 1.08 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 16.4 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 55.9 | Pressure share % | 65.8 |
| 18.2 | Tackles | 11.6 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest
- Ola Aina RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Dan Ndoye RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 56 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 20% of his position)
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
- Martin Ødegaard AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 67
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26, plays as an attacking midfielder for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and big chances created. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 1.60 / 90 | 69% |
| Expected goals | 0.26 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
- What Morgan Gibbs-White is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Morgan Gibbs-White's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball, with Nottingham Forest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.09 for Nottingham Forest and 1.22 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 48%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal betting tips
- Tip 1: Arsenal to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal played?
At The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottingham Forest's home ground.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are the favourites: Nottingham Forest 18%, draw 25%, Arsenal 57%. Our prediction is Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
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