Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Real Madrid welcome Villarreal to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid in La Liga action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Real Madrid have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Villarreal have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 15% and Villarreal at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Real Madrid -1.75 at 1.76, Villarreal at 2.16. The main goals line is 3.75: over 1.95, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid press high, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 18.9 a match, 7.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.28 a match created, 1.34 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 61.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Real Madrid | Per match | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.28 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.34 |
| 2.57 | Goals | 1.86 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 7.6 | Shots on target | 6.6 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 2.4 |
| 70.5 | Pressure share % | 69.1 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 8.4 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Real Madrid 9, Villarreal 2 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid (January 24th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Real Madrid won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Real Madrid | 3 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Villarreal | 1 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Real Madrid | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
Players to watch
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 1% of his position)
- Vinicius Junior LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 75 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Alberto Moleiro LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 72 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 88
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 88
- LW · Winger Competent, 77
- RW · Winger Competent, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 7.22 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 1.04 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 2.06 / 90 | 99% |
| Through balls | 0.52 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.84 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 2.36 for Real Madrid and 1.45 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 70%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Real Madrid vs Villarreal betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Madrid to win 73% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 73% by the model, 3.81 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Real Madrid vs Villarreal in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Real Madrid vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid vs Villarreal is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Real Madrid vs Villarreal played?
At Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Real Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Real Madrid 73%, draw 15%, Villarreal 12%. Our prediction is Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 88 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.