Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Aston Villa welcome Fenerbahce to Villa Park in Birmingham in UEFA Champions League action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Aston Villa have played 5 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Fenerbahce have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Aston Villa are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Fenerbahce at 23%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa -0.75 at 2.02, Fenerbahce at 1.86. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 2.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Fenerbahce: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | – |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.29 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 2.4 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | – |
| 32.4 | Pressure share % | – |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 20.9 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 7 measured matches.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Aston Villa have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 1 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Aston Villa 1, Fenerbahce 0 - 1.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Fenerbahce 0-1 Aston Villa (January 22nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 1 meetings Aston Villa won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahce | 0 – 1 | Aston Villa |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Ian Maatsen LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley, 32 · Aston Villa · CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 58
Ross Barkley, 32, plays as a central midfielder for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.16 / 90 | 83% |
| Passes | 59.04 / 90 | 78% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 75% |
| Key passes | 1.74 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
- What Ross Barkley is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ross Barkley's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 0.75 for Aston Villa and 1.57 for Fenerbahce - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 43%. Aston Villa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Fenerbahce
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce betting tips
- Tip 1: Aston Villa win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Aston Villa are the favourites: Aston Villa 52%, draw 25%, Fenerbahce 23%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 1-0 Fenerbahce.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Ross Barkley of Aston Villa: a box-to-box midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
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