Lens vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lens welcome Sporting Lisbon to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Lens have played 5 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Sporting Lisbon have played 1 match in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 100% of them.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lens 40%, the draw 26%, Sporting Lisbon 34%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lens 0 at 1.75, Sporting Lisbon at 2.14. The main goals line is 3: over 1.93, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Sporting Lisbon: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 38.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Lens vs Sporting Lisbon: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match | Sporting Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.80 | Goals | 3.00 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.2 | Big chances missed | – |
| 59.1 | Pressure share % | – |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 1 measured matches.
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.60 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Sporting Lisbon prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.75 for Lens and 1.67 for Sporting Lisbon - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 68%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lens 1-1 Sporting Lisbon
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lens vs Sporting Lisbon betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Lens vs Sporting Lisbon in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lens vs Sporting Lisbon: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Sporting Lisbon?
Lens vs Sporting Lisbon is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Lens vs Sporting Lisbon played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Sporting Lisbon?
It is close: Lens 40%, draw 26%, Sporting Lisbon 34%. Our prediction is Lens 1-1 Sporting Lisbon.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Sporting Lisbon?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Sporting Lisbon?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.