Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Atletico Madrid welcome Manchester United to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Atletico Madrid have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Manchester United have played 5 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atletico Madrid are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 25% and Manchester United at 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atletico Madrid -0.25 at 1.95, Manchester United at 1.93. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.98, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Atletico Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 22.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Atletico Madrid | Per match | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 2.29 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 67.7 | Pressure share % | 73.4 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 5 measured matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Atletico Madrid have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Atletico Madrid 2, Manchester United 1 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Manchester United 0-1 Atletico Madrid (March 15th 2022).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Atletico Madrid won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2022 | Manchester United | 0 – 1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 23 Feb 2022 | Atletico Madrid | 1 – 1 | Manchester United |
Players to watch
Atletico Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 73 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70
Marcus Rashford, 28, plays as a winger for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and dispossessed. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.31 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 86% |
| Fouls won | 2.03 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.03 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
- What Marcus Rashford is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Rashford's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball; Atletico Madrid like to take players on; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.92 for Atletico Madrid and 1.25 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 61%. Atletico Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Manchester United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United betting tips
- Tip 1: Atletico Madrid win or draw (double chance) 68% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United played?
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Atletico Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atletico Madrid are the favourites: Atletico Madrid 43%, draw 25%, Manchester United 32%. Our prediction is Atletico Madrid 2-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Marcus Rashford of Manchester United: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.