Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 6
Serie A · Monday 12 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · updated 2026-10-10
Atalanta welcome Venezia to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Serie A Gameweek 6 action on Monday 12 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Atalanta have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Venezia have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atalanta are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 25% and Venezia at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atalanta 1.76, Venezia 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Venezia: form and key numbers
In style Venezia keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Atalanta vs Venezia: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match this season | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.6 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.4 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 57.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
- Gianluca Gaetano DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 25% of his position)
Venezia
- Gianluca Busio DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
- Kike Pérez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: John Yeboah
John Yeboah, 26 · Venezia · SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 63
John Yeboah, 26, plays as a second striker for Venezia in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in assists. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 73
- SS · Second striker Natural, 63
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.51 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
| Key passes | 2.36 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Dribbler.
- What John Yeboah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open John Yeboah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
Venezia should have more of the ball, with Atalanta likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.76 for Atalanta and 1.26 for Venezia - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Atalanta have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atalanta 2-1 Venezia
Atalanta vs Venezia betting tips
- Tip 1: Atalanta win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
Atalanta vs Venezia: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta vs Venezia is on Monday 12 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 6.
Where is Atalanta vs Venezia played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta are the favourites: Atalanta 48%, draw 25%, Venezia 27%. Our prediction is Atalanta 2-1 Venezia.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Venezia?
John Yeboah of Venezia: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.