Torino vs Monza Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Friday 23 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino · updated 2026-10-10
Torino welcome Monza to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Torino have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Monza have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Torino 36%, the draw 25%, Monza 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Torino 1.50, Monza 1.57.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Torino: form and key numbers
In style Torino keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.94 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 9.4 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Torino vs Monza: season averages side by side
| Torino | Per match this season | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 0.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.71 |
| 1.84 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 9.4 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 3.0 | On target | 6.0 |
| 53.8 | Possession % | 46.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Torino
- Saúl Coco CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Hard to dribble past, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
- Kian Fitz-Jim CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Dribbler, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Monza
- Gustavo Varela CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Clinical finisher (top 21% of his position)
- Ricardo Mangas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 51 · Hard to dribble past, Gets into scoring positions (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi, 23 · Monza · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 58
Lorenzo Lucchesi, 23, plays as a centre-back for Monza in Serie A. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and interceptions. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 63
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 95% | 97% |
| Interceptions | 2.58 / 90 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 1.07 / 90 | 77% |
| Tackles | 1.72 / 90 | 69% |
| Clearances | 5.58 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Reads the game.
- What Lorenzo Lucchesi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lorenzo Lucchesi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Torino vs Monza prediction
Torino should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.50 for Torino and 1.57 for Monza - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Torino 1-1 Monza
Torino vs Monza betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.06 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
Torino vs Monza: questions and answers
When is Torino vs Monza?
Torino vs Monza is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Torino vs Monza played?
At Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Torino's home ground.
Who will win Torino vs Monza?
It is close: Torino 36%, draw 25%, Monza 39%. Our prediction is Torino 1-1 Monza.
Who is the player to watch in Torino vs Monza?
Lorenzo Lucchesi of Monza: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Torino vs Monza?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.