RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
RB Leipzig welcome PSV Eindhoven to Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
RB Leipzig have played 4 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. PSV Eindhoven have played 1 match in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, RB Leipzig are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 24% and PSV Eindhoven at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is RB Leipzig -0.5 at 2.04, PSV Eindhoven at 1.84. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.72, under 2.16, which gives over 56%.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 18.8 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
PSV Eindhoven: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.52 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: season averages side by side
| RB Leipzig | Per match | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.52 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 2.25 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 18.8 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | – |
| 63.9 | Pressure share % | – |
| 11.8 | Tackles | 22.0 |
| 9.3 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 1 measured matches.
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Willi Orbán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball circulator, Disciplined (top 7% of his position)
- Maarten Vandevoordt GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Antonio Nusa, 21, plays as a winger for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and big chances created. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.42 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.79 / 90 | 86% |
| Fouls won | 2.37 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 2.63 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Big-chance creator, Draws fouls.
- What Antonio Nusa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antonio Nusa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.84 for RB Leipzig and 1.05 for PSV Eindhoven - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 55%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 PSV Eindhoven
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven betting tips
- Tip 1: RB Leipzig win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven in the Match Centre Follow it live
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RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: questions and answers
When is RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven played?
At Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, RB Leipzig's home ground.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: RB Leipzig 44%, draw 24%, PSV Eindhoven 31%. Our prediction is RB Leipzig 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who is the player to watch in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
Antonio Nusa of RB Leipzig: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.