Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bodo Glimt welcome Borussia Dortmund to Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø in UEFA Champions League action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Bodo Glimt have played 5 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 4 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 24% and Bodo Glimt at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bodo Glimt +0.5 at 1.84, Borussia Dortmund at 2.04. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.74, under 2.13, which gives over 55%.
Bodo Glimt: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Bodo Glimt | Per match | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 2.40 | Goals | 2.25 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| – | Big chances missed | 2.3 |
| – | Pressure share % | 47.8 |
| 18.8 | Tackles | 18.5 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 4 measured matches.
Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Bodo Glimt have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 1 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Bodo Glimt 2, Borussia Dortmund 2 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bodo Glimt (December 10th 2025).
Head to head
In their last 1 meetings Bodo Glimt won 0, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 2 | Bodo Glimt |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Jobe Samuel Patrick Bellingham CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 61
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Competent, 53
- LW · Winger Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots on target | 54% | 74% |
| Shots | 3.43 / 90 | 72% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.64 / 90 | 68% |
| Goals | 0.53 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.51 for Bodo Glimt and 2.05 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Bodo Glimt 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.56 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø, Bodo Glimt's home ground.
Who will win Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Bodo Glimt 31%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 44%. Our prediction is Bodo Glimt 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bodo Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.