Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Celta Vigo welcome Alaves to Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Celta Vigo have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Alaves have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Celta Vigo are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 29% and Alaves at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Celta Vigo -0.5 at 2.03, Alaves at 1.88. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.90, under 1.98, which gives over 51%.
Celta Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Alaves: form and key numbers
In style Alaves are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: season averages side by side
| Celta Vigo | Per match | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 1.14 | Goals | 1.57 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 51.7 | Pressure share % | 44.8 |
| 14.0 | Tackles | 19.0 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Celta Vigo
- Javi Rueda RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Ionuț Radu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Alaves
- Antonio Sivera GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Mariano Díaz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez, 24 · Deportivo Alavés · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 67
Ángel Pérez, 24, plays as a winger for Deportivo Alavés in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.10 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.83 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.55 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.01 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Ángel Pérez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ángel Pérez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction
Celta Vigo should have more of the ball, with Alaves likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Alaves work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 1.09 for Celta Vigo and 1.04 for Alaves - with over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams scoring at 44%. Celta Vigo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Celta Vigo 1-0 Alaves
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Celta Vigo vs Alaves betting tips
- Tip 1: Celta Vigo win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 2.13 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Celta Vigo vs Alaves in the Match Centre Follow it live
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- Elche CF vs Celta Vigo Sunday 11 October 2026
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: questions and answers
When is Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo vs Alaves is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Alaves played?
At Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo, Celta Vigo's home ground.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Celta Vigo are the favourites: Celta Vigo 45%, draw 29%, Alaves 26%. Our prediction is Celta Vigo 1-0 Alaves.
Who is the player to watch in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Ángel Pérez of Deportivo Alavés: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.