Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Monday 19 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Getafe welcome Rayo Vallecano to Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in Getafe in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Monday 19 October 2026.
Getafe have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Rayo Vallecano have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Getafe 34%, the draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 36%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Getafe 0 at 2.01, Rayo Vallecano at 1.89. The main goals line is 2: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Getafe: form and key numbers
In style Getafe are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 40.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: season averages side by side
| Getafe | Per match | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.37 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 0.57 | Goals | 1.57 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 47.1 | Pressure share % | 42.7 |
| 12.7 | Tackles | 17.4 |
| 14.7 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Getafe
- David Soria GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Zaid Romero CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 49 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Long passer, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 85% |
| Key passes | 1.53 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 3.64 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter, Chance creator.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Rayo Vallecano should have more of the ball, with Getafe likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.40 for Getafe and 1.16 for Rayo Vallecano - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.56 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 10.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: questions and answers
When is Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano is on Monday 19 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano played?
At Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe, Getafe's home ground.
Who will win Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
It is close: Getafe 34%, draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 36%. Our prediction is Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Who is the player to watch in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.