Osasuna vs Racing Santander Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Osasuna welcome Racing Santander to Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Osasuna have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Racing Santander have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Osasuna are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 27% and Racing Santander at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Osasuna -0.5 at 1.89, Racing Santander at 2.01. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.98, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 9.3 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 45.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Racing Santander: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 2.20 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: season averages side by side
| Osasuna | Per match | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 2.20 |
| 0.86 | Goals | 1.57 |
| 9.3 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 42.7 | Pressure share % | 39.5 |
| 15.7 | Tackles | 20.1 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Osasuna
- Alejandro Catena CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Abel Bretones LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 41 · Creator, Ball-winner (top 18% of his position)
Racing Santander
- Yassir Zabiri CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 67 · Clinical finisher, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 4% of his position)
- Pablo Ramón CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 74
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.61 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.82 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots on target | 61% | 93% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.76 / 90 | 92% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Osasuna vs Racing Santander prediction
Racing Santander should have more of the ball; Osasuna are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.93 for Osasuna and 1.40 for Racing Santander - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 65%. Osasuna have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Osasuna 2-1 Racing Santander
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Osasuna vs Racing Santander betting tips
- Tip 1: Osasuna win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Osasuna vs Racing Santander in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Osasuna vs Racing Santander: questions and answers
When is Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Osasuna vs Racing Santander is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Osasuna vs Racing Santander played?
At Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Osasuna's home ground.
Who will win Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Osasuna are the favourites: Osasuna 48%, draw 27%, Racing Santander 25%. Our prediction is Osasuna 2-1 Racing Santander.
Who is the player to watch in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.