Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Real Madrid welcome Sevilla to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Real Madrid have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Sevilla have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 15% and Sevilla at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Real Madrid -2 at 2.08, Sevilla at 1.83. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid press high, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 18.9 a match, 7.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Sevilla: form and key numbers
In style Sevilla are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 42.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: season averages side by side
| Real Madrid | Per match | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 2.57 | Goals | 1.43 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 7.6 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 0.9 |
| 70.5 | Pressure share % | 47.1 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 19.1 |
| 8.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 1% of his position)
- Vinicius Junior LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
Sevilla
- Gabriel Suazo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Lucien Agoumé DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 54 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 88
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 88
- LW · Winger Competent, 77
- RW · Winger Competent, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 7.22 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 1.04 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 2.06 / 90 | 99% |
| Through balls | 0.52 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.84 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
Real Madrid should have more of the ball, with Sevilla likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Real Madrid like to take players on; Sevilla are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.19 for Real Madrid and 1.04 for Sevilla - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 58%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Sevilla
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Real Madrid vs Sevilla betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Madrid to win 74% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.24 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Real Madrid vs Sevilla in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Real Madrid vs Sevilla: questions and answers
When is Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid vs Sevilla is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Where is Real Madrid vs Sevilla played?
At Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Real Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Real Madrid 74%, draw 15%, Sevilla 11%. Our prediction is Real Madrid 2-1 Sevilla.
Who is the player to watch in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 88 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.