Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 9
La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Valencia welcome Athletic Bilbao in La Liga Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Valencia have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Athletic Bilbao have played 6 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Athletic Bilbao are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 29% and Valencia at 28%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Valencia +0.25 at 2.02, Athletic Bilbao at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.14, under 1.75, which gives over 45%.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Athletic Bilbao: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Bilbao keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: season averages side by side
| Valencia | Per match | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 0.57 | Goals | 1.17 |
| 10.6 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 30.8 | Pressure share % | 62.9 |
| 17.1 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 61 · Duel winner, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
- Pepelu DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Disciplined (top 15% of his position)
Athletic Bilbao
- Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
- Unai Simón GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Box defender (top 27% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche, 36 · Athletic Club · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 68
Yuri Berchiche, 36, plays as a full-back for Athletic Club in La Liga. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 68
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 98% |
| Passes | 66.70 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 1.47 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.17 / 90 | 92% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.49 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball circulator, Chance creator.
- What Yuri Berchiche is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Yuri Berchiche's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
Athletic Bilbao should have more of the ball; Valencia like to take players on; Athletic Bilbao work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 0.96 for Valencia and 1.41 for Athletic Bilbao - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 47%. Athletic Bilbao have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao betting tips
- Tip 1: Athletic Bilbao win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: questions and answers
When is Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 9.
Who will win Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Athletic Bilbao are the favourites: Valencia 28%, draw 29%, Athletic Bilbao 44%. Our prediction is Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao.
Who is the player to watch in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Yuri Berchiche of Athletic Club: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.