Viking vs Bayern Munich Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Viking welcome Bayern Munich to SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Viking have played 3 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Bayern Munich have played 4 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 83%, with the draw at 10% and Viking at 7%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.0% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Viking +2.75 at 1.93, Bayern Munich at 1.95. The main goals line is 4.25: over 1.83, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Viking: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 9.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 38.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.51 a match created, 0.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 21.8 a match, 8.8 on target.
- Possession: 70.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.25.
Viking vs Bayern Munich: season averages side by side
| Viking | Per match | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.51 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.69 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 3.50 |
| 9.3 | Shots | 21.8 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 8.8 |
| – | Big chances missed | 3.3 |
| – | Pressure share % | 92.4 |
| 14.0 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 3 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bayern Munich
- Alphonso Davies LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Dayot Upamecano CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball circulator, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- SS · Second striker Competent, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 5.05 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.27 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.48 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Viking vs Bayern Munich prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.14 for Viking and 2.39 for Bayern Munich - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 62%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Viking 1-2 Bayern Munich
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Viking vs Bayern Munich betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 83% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.53 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Viking vs Bayern Munich: questions and answers
When is Viking vs Bayern Munich?
Viking vs Bayern Munich is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Viking vs Bayern Munich played?
At SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger, Viking's home ground.
Who will win Viking vs Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Viking 7%, draw 10%, Bayern Munich 83%. Our prediction is Viking 1-2 Bayern Munich.
Who is the player to watch in Viking vs Bayern Munich?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Viking vs Bayern Munich?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.