Villarreal vs Napoli Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Villarreal welcome Napoli to Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Villarreal have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Napoli have played 5 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Villarreal 41%, the draw 27%, Napoli 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Villarreal -0.25 at 1.98, Napoli at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.93, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.28 a match created, 1.34 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 61.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Napoli: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Villarreal vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Villarreal | Per match | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 1.34 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 1.86 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 69.1 | Pressure share % | 51.5 |
| 14.9 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 5 measured matches.
Villarreal vs Napoli: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Villarreal have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Villarreal 4, Napoli 6 - 1.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Napoli 1-1 Villarreal (February 25th 2016).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Villarreal won 2, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2016 | Napoli | 1 – 1 | Villarreal |
| 18 Feb 2016 | Villarreal | 1 – 0 | Napoli |
| 7 Dec 2011 | Villarreal | 0 – 2 | Napoli |
| 27 Sep 2011 | Napoli | 2 – 0 | Villarreal |
| 24 Feb 2011 | Villarreal | 2 – 1 | Napoli |
| 17 Feb 2011 | Napoli | 0 – 0 | Villarreal |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 75 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Santi Comesaña CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 72
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 72
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 68
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.50 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 0.88 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.53 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.33 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball, with Napoli likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Villarreal like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.03 for Villarreal and 1.38 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Napoli
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Villarreal vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Villarreal vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Villarreal vs Napoli?
Villarreal vs Napoli is on Wednesday 14 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Villarreal vs Napoli played?
At Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Villarreal's home ground.
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
It is close: Villarreal 41%, draw 27%, Napoli 31%. Our prediction is Villarreal 1-1 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Villarreal vs Napoli?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.