Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Augsburg welcome Bayern Munich to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Augsburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bayern Munich have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 14% and Augsburg at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Augsburg +2 at 2.12, Bayern Munich at 1.79. The main goals line is 4.5: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 2.31 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.51 a match created, 0.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 21.8 a match, 8.8 on target.
- Possession: 70.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.25.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: season averages side by side
| Augsburg | Per match | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.51 |
| 2.31 | xG conceded | 0.69 |
| 2.75 | Goals | 3.50 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 21.8 |
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 8.8 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 3.3 |
| 31.0 | Pressure share % | 92.4 |
| 16.5 | Tackles | 13.0 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Augsburg have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Augsburg 5, Bayern Munich 10 - 3.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Bayern Munich 1-2 Augsburg (January 24th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Augsburg won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Bayern Munich | 1 – 2 | Augsburg |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Augsburg | 2 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 4 Apr 2025 | Augsburg | 1 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 22 Nov 2024 | Bayern Munich | 3 – 0 | Augsburg |
Players to watch
Augsburg
- Michael Gregoritsch CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70 · Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 7% of his position)
Bayern Munich
- Alphonso Davies LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Dayot Upamecano CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball circulator, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- SS · Second striker Competent, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 5.05 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.27 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.48 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball, with Augsburg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Augsburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayern Munich work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.51 for Augsburg and 2.23 for Bayern Munich - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 70%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Augsburg 1-2 Bayern Munich
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 74% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.75 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Augsburg vs Bayern Munich in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: questions and answers
When is Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is Augsburg vs Bayern Munich played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Augsburg 12%, draw 14%, Bayern Munich 74%. Our prediction is Augsburg 1-2 Bayern Munich.
Who is the player to watch in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
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