TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Hamburger SV to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Hamburger SV have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, TSG Hoffenheim are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and Hamburger SV at 15%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is TSG Hoffenheim -1.25 at 1.79, Hamburger SV at 2.12. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.87 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 1.75 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 9.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 2.8 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 61.2 | Pressure share % | 26.6 |
| 15.8 | Tackles | 14.3 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 14.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- TSG Hoffenheim have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: TSG Hoffenheim 6, Hamburger SV 2 - 4.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Hamburger SV 1-2 TSG Hoffenheim (April 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hamburger SV | 1 – 2 | TSG Hoffenheim |
| 13 Dec 2025 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 – 1 | Hamburger SV |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Leon Avdullahu DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
- Vladimír Coufal RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 13% of his position)
Hamburger SV
- Nicolai Remberg DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 49 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 8% of his position)
- Albert Grønbæk AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Draws fouls, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak, 26 · TSG Hoffenheim · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66
Ozan Kabak, 26, plays as a centre-back for TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.45 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 7.74 / 90 | 95% |
| Clearances | 8.77 / 90 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 1.55 / 90 | 91% |
| Dribbled past | 0.26 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Box defender.
- What Ozan Kabak is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ozan Kabak's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball, with Hamburger SV likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.41 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.23 for Hamburger SV - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 65%. TSG Hoffenheim have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Hamburger SV
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV betting tips
- Tip 1: TSG Hoffenheim to win 67% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.64 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Saturday 10 October 2026
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Saturday 10 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Saturday 10 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Saturday 10 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 17 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 67%, draw 19%, Hamburger SV 15%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Hamburger SV.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Ozan Kabak of TSG Hoffenheim: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.