FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
FSV Mainz 05 welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Mewa Arena in Mainz in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
FSV Mainz 05 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Bayer Leverkusen have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayer Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 25% and FSV Mainz 05 at 33%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is FSV Mainz 05 0 at 2.20, Bayer Leverkusen at 1.74. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.31 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Bayer Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.53 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| FSV Mainz 05 | Per match | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 2.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.53 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 2.50 |
| 18.3 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 70.9 | Pressure share % | 75.0 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 13.3 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: FSV Mainz 05 6, Bayer Leverkusen 8 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (February 28th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings FSV Mainz 05 won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 – 1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 – 4 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 17 May 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 – 2 | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 – 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
Players to watch
FSV Mainz 05
- Fabio Gruber CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
- Nadiem Amiri AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 62 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Bayer Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69 · High shot volume, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 75
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.25 / 90 | 95% |
| Goals | 1.00 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 7.50 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.64 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher, Duel winner.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Bayer Leverkusen should have more of the ball; FSV Mainz 05 are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayer Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.85 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.81 for Bayer Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 71%. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 3.66 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Saturday 10 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Saturday 10 October 2026
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Saturday 10 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Saturday 10 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 17 October 2026
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
At Mewa Arena, Mainz, FSV Mainz 05's home ground.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites: FSV Mainz 05 33%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%. Our prediction is FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.