Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Friday 23 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz · updated 2026-10-10
Deportivo Alavés welcome Málaga to Estadio de Mendizorroza in Gasteiz in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Deportivo Alavés have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Málaga have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Deportivo Alavés are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 25% and Málaga at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.72, Málaga 0.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (15%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Deportivo Alavés: form and key numbers
In style Deportivo Alavés are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Málaga: form and key numbers
In style Málaga take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga: season averages side by side
| Deportivo Alavés | Per match this season | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 0.4 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 4.4 | On target | 2.0 |
| 42.1 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Deportivo Alavés
- Antonio Sivera GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Box defender (top 7% of his position)
- Mariano Díaz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Accurate shooter, Clinical finisher (top 2% of his position)
Málaga
- Alfonso Herrero GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 19% of his position)
- Pablo Martínez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 55 · Chance creator, Long passer (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez, 24 · Deportivo Alavés · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 67
Ángel Pérez, 24, plays as a winger for Deportivo Alavés in La Liga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.10 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.83 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.55 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.01 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Ángel Pérez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ángel Pérez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga prediction
Málaga should have more of the ball, with Deportivo Alavés likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Deportivo Alavés work the ball wide and cross; Málaga like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.72 for Deportivo Alavés and 0.70 for Málaga - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 42%. Deportivo Alavés have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Málaga
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga betting tips
- Tip 1: Deportivo Alavés to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
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- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga: questions and answers
When is Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga?
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga played?
At Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz, Deportivo Alavés's home ground.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga?
Deportivo Alavés are the favourites: Deportivo Alavés 61%, draw 25%, Málaga 14%. Our prediction is Deportivo Alavés 1-0 Málaga.
Who is the player to watch in Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga?
Ángel Pérez of Deportivo Alavés: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.