Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 6
Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Genoa welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova in Serie A Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Genoa have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Fiorentina have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Genoa 30%, the draw 29%, Fiorentina 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Genoa 0 at 2.26, Fiorentina at 1.69. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.06, which gives over 53%.
Genoa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Genoa vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Genoa | Per match | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 0.60 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 45.0 | Pressure share % | 51.0 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Genoa vs Fiorentina: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Genoa have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Genoa 3, Fiorentina 5 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa (May 10th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Genoa won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Fiorentina | 0 – 0 | Genoa |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Genoa | 2 – 2 | Fiorentina |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 2 – 1 | Genoa |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Genoa | 0 – 1 | Fiorentina |
Players to watch
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 21% of his position)
- Radu Drăgușin CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 71
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 71
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 67
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.50 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.38 / 90 | 82% |
| Fouls won | 2.14 / 90 | 81% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.14 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction
Genoa should have more of the ball; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.42 for Genoa and 1.42 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Genoa vs Fiorentina betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.84 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Genoa vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Genoa vs Fiorentina is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 6.
Where is Genoa vs Fiorentina played?
At Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Genoa's home ground.
Who will win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
It is close: Genoa 30%, draw 29%, Fiorentina 41%. Our prediction is Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.