Lazio vs Monza Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 6
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lazio welcome Monza to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Lazio have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate. Monza have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lazio are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 27% and Monza at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lazio -0.5 at 1.72, Monza at 2.21. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.06, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Lazio vs Monza: season averages side by side
| Lazio | Per match | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.71 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 3.0 |
| 51.3 | Pressure share % | 51.0 |
| 13.8 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Lazio vs Monza: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lazio have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lazio 6, Monza 1 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lazio 5-1 Monza (February 9th 2025).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Lazio won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2025 | Lazio | 5 – 1 | Monza |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Monza | 0 – 1 | Lazio |
Players to watch
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 15% of his position)
- Reda Belahyane DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 5% of his position)
Monza
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Gustavo Varela CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Clinical finisher (top 21% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 64
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.40 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 3.22 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.60 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 73% |
| Fouls won | 1.81 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Big-chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lazio vs Monza prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.89 for Lazio and 1.18 for Monza - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 60%. Lazio have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lazio 2-1 Monza
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lazio vs Monza betting tips
- Tip 1: Lazio win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.08 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Lazio vs Monza: questions and answers
When is Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio vs Monza is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 6.
Where is Lazio vs Monza played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Lazio's home ground.
Who will win Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio are the favourites: Lazio 53%, draw 27%, Monza 21%. Our prediction is Lazio 2-1 Monza.
Who is the player to watch in Lazio vs Monza?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Monza?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.