Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 6
Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Inter Milan welcome Parma Calcio to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Inter Milan have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Parma Calcio have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are clear favourites at 80%, with the draw at 12% and Parma Calcio at 8%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Inter Milan -2.25 at 1.88, Parma Calcio at 2.03. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.
Inter Milan: form and key numbers
In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 63.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Parma Calcio: form and key numbers
In style Parma Calcio are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.82 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 8.2 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio: season averages side by side
| Inter Milan | Per match | Parma Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 3.00 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 23.2 | Shots | 8.2 |
| 7.4 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 80.1 | Pressure share % | 29.5 |
| 16.6 | Tackles | 12.0 |
| 6.6 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Inter Milan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Inter Milan 9, Parma Calcio 3 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Inter Milan 2-0 Parma Calcio (May 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Inter Milan won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Inter Milan | 2 – 0 | Parma Calcio |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Parma Calcio | 0 – 2 | Inter Milan |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Parma Calcio | 2 – 2 | Inter Milan |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Inter Milan | 3 – 1 | Parma Calcio |
Players to watch
Inter Milan
- Manuel Akanji CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Federico Dimarco LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Parma Calcio
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 17% of his position)
- Emanuele Valeri LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Creator, Crosser (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Lautaro Martínez, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.11 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.23 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals | 1.11 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 82% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Lautaro Martínez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lautaro Martínez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio prediction
Inter Milan should have more of the ball, with Parma Calcio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Inter Milan work the ball wide and cross; Parma Calcio go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.48 for Inter Milan and 0.98 for Parma Calcio - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 58%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 Parma Calcio
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Milan to win 80% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio: questions and answers
When is Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio?
Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 6.
Where is Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter Milan's home ground.
Who will win Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio?
Inter Milan are the favourites: Inter Milan 80%, draw 12%, Parma Calcio 8%. Our prediction is Inter Milan 2-0 Parma Calcio.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio?
Lautaro Martínez of Inter: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.