AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
AS Roma welcome Genoa to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
AS Roma have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Genoa have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Roma are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 19% and Genoa at 13%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Roma -1.75 at 2.26, Genoa at 1.69. The main goals line is 3: over 2.09, under 1.79, which gives over 46%.
AS Roma: form and key numbers
In style AS Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.55 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 20.6 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.16.
Genoa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
AS Roma vs Genoa: season averages side by side
| AS Roma | Per match | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 0.60 |
| 20.6 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 67.9 | Pressure share % | 45.0 |
| 20.6 | Tackles | 17.8 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
AS Roma
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 76
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.26 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.57 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 5.22 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.24 xG/shot | 93% |
| Key passes | 1.83 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AS Roma vs Genoa prediction
AS Roma should have more of the ball, with Genoa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AS Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.51 for AS Roma and 0.75 for Genoa - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 49%. AS Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AS Roma 2-0 Genoa
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AS Roma vs Genoa betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Roma to win 69% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
AS Roma vs Genoa: questions and answers
When is AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma vs Genoa is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is AS Roma vs Genoa played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, AS Roma's home ground.
Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa?
AS Roma are the favourites: AS Roma 69%, draw 19%, Genoa 13%. Our prediction is AS Roma 2-0 Genoa.
Who is the player to watch in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.