Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Atalanta welcome Venezia to Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo in Serie A action on Tuesday 13 October 2026.
Atalanta have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Venezia have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atalanta are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Venezia at 20%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atalanta -0.75 at 1.84, Venezia at 2.06. The main goals line is 3: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.82 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Venezia: form and key numbers
In style Venezia keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Atalanta vs Venezia: season averages side by side
| Atalanta | Per match | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.82 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 38.6 | Pressure share % | 51.0 |
| 12.6 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Atalanta vs Venezia: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Atalanta have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Atalanta 2, Venezia 0 - 1.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Atalanta 0-0 Venezia (March 1st 2025).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Atalanta won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | Atalanta | 0 – 0 | Venezia |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Venezia | 0 – 2 | Atalanta |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
- Gianluca Gaetano DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 25% of his position)
Venezia
- Gianluca Busio DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
- Kike Pérez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: John Yeboah
John Yeboah, 26 · Venezia · SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 63
John Yeboah, 26, plays as a second striker for Venezia in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in assists. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 73
- SS · Second striker Natural, 63
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.51 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
| Key passes | 2.36 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Dribbler.
- What John Yeboah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open John Yeboah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
Venezia should have more of the ball, with Atalanta likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.76 for Atalanta and 1.26 for Venezia - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Atalanta have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atalanta 2-1 Venezia
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Atalanta vs Venezia betting tips
- Tip 1: Atalanta to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Atalanta vs Venezia: questions and answers
When is Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta vs Venezia is on Tuesday 13 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Atalanta vs Venezia played?
At Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Atalanta's home ground.
Who will win Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta are the favourites: Atalanta 57%, draw 23%, Venezia 20%. Our prediction is Atalanta 2-1 Venezia.
Who is the player to watch in Atalanta vs Venezia?
John Yeboah of Venezia: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.