Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bayern Munich welcome RB Leipzig to Allianz Arena in Munich in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Bayern Munich have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. RB Leipzig have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 14% and RB Leipzig at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayern Munich -2.25 at 2.05, RB Leipzig at 1.85. The main goals line is 4.5: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.51 a match created, 0.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 21.8 a match, 8.8 on target.
- Possession: 70.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.25.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 18.8 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: season averages side by side
| Bayern Munich | Per match | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 2.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.09 |
| 0.69 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 3.50 | Goals | 2.25 |
| 21.8 | Shots | 18.8 |
| 8.8 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 3.3 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 92.4 | Pressure share % | 63.9 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 11.8 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bayern Munich
- Alphonso Davies LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Dayot Upamecano CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball circulator, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
RB Leipzig
- Antonio Nusa LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- Willi Orbán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball circulator, Disciplined (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- SS · Second striker Competent, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 5.05 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.27 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.48 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.19 for Bayern Munich and 1.22 for RB Leipzig - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 63%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 RB Leipzig
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 75% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 16.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
When is Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, Bayern Munich's home ground.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Bayern Munich 75%, draw 14%, RB Leipzig 11%. Our prediction is Bayern Munich 2-1 RB Leipzig.
Who is the player to watch in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.