Bologna vs Inter Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bologna welcome Inter Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Bologna have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Inter Milan have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 23% and Bologna at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bologna +0.75 at 2.11, Inter Milan at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.
Bologna: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Inter Milan: form and key numbers
In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 63.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Bologna vs Inter Milan: season averages side by side
| Bologna | Per match | Inter Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.80 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 1.24 |
| 0.60 | Goals | 3.00 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 23.2 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 7.4 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 3.6 |
| 49.0 | Pressure share % | 80.1 |
| 15.8 | Tackles | 16.6 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 6.6 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bologna
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Juan Miranda LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Inter Milan
- Manuel Akanji CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Federico Dimarco LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Lautaro Martínez, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.11 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.23 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals | 1.11 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 82% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Lautaro Martínez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lautaro Martínez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bologna vs Inter Milan prediction
Inter Milan should have more of the ball; Inter Milan work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.28 for Bologna and 1.73 for Inter Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bologna vs Inter Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Milan to win 58% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.01 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bologna vs Inter Milan: questions and answers
When is Bologna vs Inter Milan?
Bologna vs Inter Milan is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Bologna vs Inter Milan played?
At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Bologna's home ground.
Who will win Bologna vs Inter Milan?
Inter Milan are the favourites: Bologna 19%, draw 23%, Inter Milan 58%. Our prediction is Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Bologna vs Inter Milan?
Lautaro Martínez of Inter: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bologna vs Inter Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.