Brest vs Nice Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Friday 23 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest · updated 2026-10-10
Brest welcome Nice to Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Brest have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Nice have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brest are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 25% and Nice at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brest 1.70, Nice 0.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 56.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Brest vs Nice: season averages side by side
| Brest | Per match this season | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.6 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.16 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 19.2 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 5.8 | On target | 3.0 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 56.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Brest
- R. Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Nice
- Xavier Mandza DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Disciplined, Ball circulator (top 7% of his position)
- Axel Witsel DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 52 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 71
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in duels won and accurate crosses. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 71
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.03 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.80 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 82% |
| Interceptions | 1.61 / 90 | 81% |
| Tackles | 3.01 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Crosser, Dribbler.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brest vs Nice prediction
Nice should have more of the ball, with Brest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Nice press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.70 for Brest and 0.96 for Nice - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 51%. Brest have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brest 1-0 Nice
Brest vs Nice betting tips
- Tip 1: Brest win or draw (double chance) 80% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.65 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
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- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Brest vs Nice: questions and answers
When is Brest vs Nice?
Brest vs Nice is on Friday 23 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Brest vs Nice played?
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest, Brest's home ground.
Who will win Brest vs Nice?
Brest are the favourites: Brest 54%, draw 25%, Nice 20%. Our prediction is Brest 1-0 Nice.
Who is the player to watch in Brest vs Nice?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brest vs Nice?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.