Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 6
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-10-10
Troyes welcome Olympique Marseille to Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas in Troyes in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Troyes have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Olympique Marseille have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Troyes 37%, the draw 24%, Olympique Marseille 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.61, Olympique Marseille 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 39.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Troyes vs Olympique Marseille: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 2.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 39.2 | Possession % | 56.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 7.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 19% of his position)
- Adrien Monfray CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
Olympique Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 14% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 69
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Troyes vs Olympique Marseille prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Troyes work the ball wide and cross; Olympique Marseille like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.61 for Troyes and 1.64 for Olympique Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Troyes 1-1 Olympique Marseille
Troyes vs Olympique Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Troyes vs Olympique Marseille: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Olympique Marseille?
Troyes vs Olympique Marseille is on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6.
Where is Troyes vs Olympique Marseille played?
At Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Olympique Marseille?
It is close: Troyes 37%, draw 24%, Olympique Marseille 38%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-1 Olympique Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Olympique Marseille?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Olympique Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.