Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Friday 16 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne · updated 2026-10-10
Le Mans welcome Toulouse to Stade de La Pincenardière in Mulsanne in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Friday 16 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Le Mans have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Toulouse have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Le Mans are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 22% and Toulouse at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Mans 2.04, Toulouse 1.60.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 1.86 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: season averages side by side
| Le Mans | Per match this season | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.86 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.6 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 52.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 2.6 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Le Mans
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
- Louis Mafouta CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Toulouse
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
- Guillaume Restes GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 53 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr., 26 · Toulouse · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79
Cristian Cásseres Jr., 26, plays as a central midfielder for Toulouse in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.60 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.51 / 90 | 100% |
| Dispossessed | 0.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Tackles | 4.40 / 90 | 99% |
| Passes | 86.20 / 90 | 98% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Press-resistant.
- What Cristian Cásseres Jr. is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Cristian Cásseres Jr.'s full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball, with Le Mans likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Le Mans go long and direct; Toulouse like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.04 for Le Mans and 1.60 for Toulouse - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Le Mans have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Le Mans 2-1 Toulouse
Le Mans vs Toulouse betting tips
- Tip 1: Le Mans win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.64 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
Le Mans vs Toulouse: questions and answers
When is Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Le Mans vs Toulouse is on Friday 16 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Le Mans vs Toulouse played?
At Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne, Le Mans's home ground.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Le Mans are the favourites: Le Mans 47%, draw 22%, Toulouse 30%. Our prediction is Le Mans 2-1 Toulouse.
Who is the player to watch in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Cristian Cásseres Jr. of Toulouse: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.