Troyes vs Lens Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-10-10
Troyes welcome Lens to Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas in Troyes in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Troyes have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Lens have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lens are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 23% and Troyes at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.61, Lens 1.89.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 39.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Troyes vs Lens: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match this season | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.92 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 2.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 39.2 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 7.6 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 19% of his position)
- Adrien Monfray CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.60 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Troyes vs Lens prediction
Lens should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.61 for Troyes and 1.89 for Lens - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 69%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Troyes 1-2 Lens
Troyes vs Lens betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
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Troyes vs Lens: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Lens?
Troyes vs Lens is on Saturday 17 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Troyes vs Lens played?
At Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Lens?
Lens are the favourites: Troyes 33%, draw 23%, Lens 44%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-2 Lens.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Lens?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Lens?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.