Cagliari vs Juventus Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Monday 12 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Cagliari welcome Juventus to Sardegna Arena in Cagliari in Serie A action on Monday 12 October 2026.
Cagliari have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate. Juventus have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Juventus are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 24% and Cagliari at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Cagliari +0.75 at 2.17, Juventus at 1.75. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.95 a match created, 1.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 40.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 0.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Cagliari vs Juventus: season averages side by side
| Cagliari | Per match | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.73 | xG conceded | 0.61 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 34.1 | Pressure share % | 73.3 |
| 14.8 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 14.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Cagliari vs Juventus: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Cagliari have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Cagliari 3, Juventus 4 - 1.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Cagliari 1-0 Juventus (January 17th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Cagliari won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Cagliari | 1 – 0 | Juventus |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Juventus | 2 – 1 | Cagliari |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Cagliari | 0 – 1 | Juventus |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Juventus | 1 – 1 | Cagliari |
Players to watch
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 69
Francisco Conceição, 23, plays as a winger for Juventus in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.98 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 2.97 / 90 | 73% |
| Dispossessed | 0.74 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.26 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Francisco Conceição is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Conceição's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Cagliari vs Juventus prediction
Juventus should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Juventus work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 0.93 for Cagliari and 1.17 for Juventus - with over 2.5 goals at 35% and both teams scoring at 43%. Juventus have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Cagliari 0-1 Juventus
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Cagliari vs Juventus betting tips
- Tip 1: Juventus to win 59% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 2.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 12.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Cagliari vs Juventus: questions and answers
When is Cagliari vs Juventus?
Cagliari vs Juventus is on Monday 12 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Cagliari vs Juventus played?
At Sardegna Arena, Cagliari, Cagliari's home ground.
Who will win Cagliari vs Juventus?
Juventus are the favourites: Cagliari 16%, draw 24%, Juventus 59%. Our prediction is Cagliari 0-1 Juventus.
Who is the player to watch in Cagliari vs Juventus?
Francisco Conceição of Juventus: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Juventus?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 35%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.