FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne · updated 2026-10-10
FC Köln welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
FC Köln have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 4.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Köln are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 17% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Köln 2.88, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.75.
- Over 2.5 goals: 84% · both teams to score: 78%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created, 2.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Mönchengladbach cross a lot, are strong in the air, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 3.12 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 47.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.56.
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: season averages side by side
| FC Köln | Per match this season | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 4.0 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 2.10 | xG conceded | 3.12 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.3 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 47.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.56 |
Players to watch
FC Köln
- Gideon Mensah LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Crosser, Secure passer (top 15% of his position)
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 51 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 10% of his position)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Philipp Sander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 53 · Press-resistant, Ball-winner (top 6% of his position)
- Moritz Nicolas GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 46 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, 20 · FC Köln · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, 20, plays as a centre-back for FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and duels won. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 61
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 93% |
| Duels won | 5.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Fouls committed | 0.50 / 90 | 74% |
| Clearances | 6.50 / 90 | 72% |
| Blocked shots | 1.00 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Duel winner.
- What Jahmai Simpson-Pusey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jahmai Simpson-Pusey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction
FC Köln should have more of the ball; Borussia Mönchengladbach are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals - 2.88 for FC Köln and 1.75 for Borussia Mönchengladbach - with over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams scoring at 78%. FC Köln have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Köln to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 84% by the model, 4.62 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 78% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: questions and answers
When is FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach played?
At RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, FC Köln's home ground.
Who will win FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Köln are the favourites: FC Köln 61%, draw 17%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 22%. Our prediction is FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who is the player to watch in FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey of FC Köln: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 84%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.