Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn · updated 2026-10-10
Paderborn welcome VfB Stuttgart to Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Paderborn have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. VfB Stuttgart have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Paderborn 41%, the draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paderborn 1.59, VfB Stuttgart 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Paderborn: form and key numbers
In style Paderborn play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.81 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart: season averages side by side
| Paderborn | Per match this season | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 0.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.54 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 2.0 | On target | 5.5 |
| 46.8 | Possession % | 53.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Paderborn
- Laurin Curda RMF · Two-way wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 71 · Duel winner, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Nahuel Noll GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 65 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
VfB Stuttgart
- Jeff Chabot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Fabian Bredlow GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 82
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 82
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 78
- LB · Full-back Competent, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.59 / 90 | 99% |
| Accurate crosses | 3.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.62 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 93% |
| Duels won | 5.69 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
VfB Stuttgart should have more of the ball, with Paderborn likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.59 for Paderborn and 1.41 for VfB Stuttgart - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Paderborn 1-1 VfB Stuttgart
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.00 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart: questions and answers
When is Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart is on Saturday 10 October 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart played?
At Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, Paderborn's home ground.
Who will win Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?
It is close: Paderborn 41%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 33%. Our prediction is Paderborn 1-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who is the player to watch in Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.