SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-10-10
SC Freiburg welcome Schalke 04 to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 4.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Schalke 04 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 19% and Schalke 04 at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.32, Schalke 04 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.23 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Schalke 04: form and key numbers
In style Schalke 04 are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 2.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 35.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 0.99 | xG conceded | 2.29 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 6.5 | On target | 4.3 |
| 53.3 | Possession % | 35.8 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 7.07 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 15% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Nikola Katic CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.17 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.17 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.17 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 60% | 83% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with Schalke 04 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.32 for SC Freiburg and 0.99 for Schalke 04 - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 57%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 2-0 Schalke 04
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg to win 66% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 is on Sunday 11 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: SC Freiburg 66%, draw 19%, Schalke 04 14%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 2-0 Schalke 04.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.