Fiorentina vs Como Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Fiorentina welcome Como to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Fiorentina have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Como have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Como are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Fiorentina at 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Fiorentina +0.5 at 1.80, Como at 2.11. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Como: form and key numbers
In style Como keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 23.4 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 61.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Fiorentina vs Como: season averages side by side
| Fiorentina | Per match | Como |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 1.20 | Goals | 1.80 |
| 16.8 | Shots | 23.4 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 7.2 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 51.0 | Pressure share % | 63.5 |
| 14.2 | Tackles | 17.2 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 7.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 71 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 21% of his position)
Como
- Lucas Da Cunha CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 77 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Luis Milla CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Assane Diao
Assane Diao, 21 · Como · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74
Assane Diao, 21, plays as a winger for Como in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 74
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 70
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 89% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.93 / 90 | 88% |
| Dispossessed | 0.53 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances created | 0.53 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Assane Diao is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Assane Diao's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fiorentina vs Como prediction
Como should have more of the ball, with Fiorentina likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Fiorentina like to take players on; Como work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.59 for Fiorentina and 1.82 for Como - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Como have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Fiorentina 1-2 Como
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Fiorentina vs Como betting tips
- Tip 1: Como win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Fiorentina vs Como: questions and answers
When is Fiorentina vs Como?
Fiorentina vs Como is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Fiorentina vs Como played?
At Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze, Fiorentina's home ground.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Como?
Como are the favourites: Fiorentina 30%, draw 27%, Como 43%. Our prediction is Fiorentina 1-2 Como.
Who is the player to watch in Fiorentina vs Como?
Assane Diao of Como: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Como?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.