Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Hamburger SV welcome VfB Stuttgart to Volksparkstadion in Hamburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Hamburger SV have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. VfB Stuttgart have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, VfB Stuttgart are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Hamburger SV at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Hamburger SV +0.5 at 2.06, VfB Stuttgart at 1.84. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.96, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.87 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 9.5 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: season averages side by side
| Hamburger SV | Per match | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 0.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 0.50 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 9.5 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 26.6 | Pressure share % | 52.3 |
| 14.3 | Tackles | 13.5 |
| 14.5 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Hamburger SV
- Nicolai Remberg DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 49 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 8% of his position)
- Albert Grønbæk AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Draws fouls, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
VfB Stuttgart
- Jeff Chabot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Fabian Bredlow GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 82
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 82
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 78
- LB · Full-back Competent, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.59 / 90 | 99% |
| Accurate crosses | 3.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.62 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 93% |
| Duels won | 5.69 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
VfB Stuttgart should have more of the ball, with Hamburger SV likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; VfB Stuttgart are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.53 for Hamburger SV and 1.93 for VfB Stuttgart - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. VfB Stuttgart have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Hamburger SV 1-2 VfB Stuttgart
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart betting tips
- Tip 1: VfB Stuttgart win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.47 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: questions and answers
When is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart played?
At Volksparkstadion, Hamburg, Hamburger SV's home ground.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart are the favourites: Hamburger SV 27%, draw 24%, VfB Stuttgart 50%. Our prediction is Hamburger SV 1-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who is the player to watch in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.