Juventus vs Lazio Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Juventus welcome Lazio to Juventus Stadium in Torino in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Juventus have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Lazio have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Juventus are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 25% and Lazio at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Juventus -0.75 at 1.88, Lazio at 2.03. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.94, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 0.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Juventus vs Lazio: season averages side by side
| Juventus | Per match | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.47 |
| 0.61 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 73.3 | Pressure share % | 51.3 |
| 12.8 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 15% of his position)
- Mattia Zaccagni LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 69
Francisco Conceição, 23, plays as a winger for Juventus in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.98 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 2.97 / 90 | 73% |
| Dispossessed | 0.74 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.26 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Francisco Conceição is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Conceição's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Juventus vs Lazio prediction
Juventus should have more of the ball, with Lazio likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Juventus work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.39 for Juventus and 0.97 for Lazio - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 47%. Juventus have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Juventus 1-0 Lazio
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Juventus vs Lazio betting tips
- Tip 1: Juventus to win 56% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Juventus vs Lazio: questions and answers
When is Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus vs Lazio is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Juventus vs Lazio played?
At Juventus Stadium, Torino, Juventus's home ground.
Who will win Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus are the favourites: Juventus 56%, draw 25%, Lazio 19%. Our prediction is Juventus 1-0 Lazio.
Who is the player to watch in Juventus vs Lazio?
Francisco Conceição of Juventus: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Juventus vs Lazio?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.